The LEC Winter regular split is ending this week and the top eight teams will advance to the groups stage. With Vitality already locked in, which are the other seven teams that will join them? Let’s see who risks missing out.
LEC Winter Groups – the current standings
After the G2 vs VIT match last week, the French team was able to secure a spot in the LEC Winter groups thanks to the 5 wins on the board. They are now currently the no. 1 and given that they will be facing two bottom teams (KOI and XL), they are likely going to finish in the top two or top three regardless.
That said, things get a lot more interesting right behind them, with four teams currently 4-2 and tied in the standings: G2, MAD and the surprising SK and BDS. While most were expecting G2 and MAD to fight for the top, almost no one would’ve predicted the latter in the top half of the standings. Given that SK beat both VIT and G2 and BDS took down MAD, they are not there just for pure luck.
In particular, SK seems to have the best meta-read out of all teams in the LEC. Markoon is proving that he’s one of the best junglers in the league and can battle with the best: XL might be regretting letting him go, especially now that they are last.
Behind the top five, there’s another five-way fight for the last three spots in the LEC Winter groups. Team Heretics, Fnatic, KOI, Astralis and XL will have a serious risk of missing out. Among these five, Team Heretics is in a better shape: they are 3-3 and they are likely going to need just one game to qualify. For all these teams, getting a 4-5 score is essential if they want to secure a place.
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Key matches of the week that will determine the potential outcomes and predictions
TH vs XL
This match will likely decide the destiny of both teams for the regular split. A win for TH would win locking a top eight finish, and XL would be unable to make it. Given their recent performances, Heretics is playing more cohesively and are favorites coming into the series.
Predictions: HT 60% | XL 40%
VIT vs BDS
The two will have their clash which is going to prove whether BDS has what it takes to fight for the top. Thanks to great draft reads and having Adam using his pocket champions to assert top lane dominance, there are some chances to see them win against Vitality, especially if Vitality messes up drafts like against SK. That said, VIT is still coming favored after the composure and draft preparations they’ve shown against G2.
Predictions: VIT 58% | BDS 42%
FNC vs AST
Astralis and Fnatic are one win from each other and both desperately need this series to have hopes of advancing to the next stage. If Fnatic wins, then they will have to beat either MAD or SK. While it won’t be an easy feat, a win against AST will boost their chances. If AST wins, instead, both teams will have to hope XL finishes behind them.
Predictions: FNC 58% | AST 42%
All KOI matches
KOI has probably the worst week out of all the teams this week. They will have to face both Vitality and G2 and hope to beat at least one of the two. If they manage, then a win against AST will seal the deal for them. Otherwise, they will have to hope for a tiebreaker or other odds to align and let them get away with a potential 3-6 score.
Predictions: VIT 65% | KOI 35%, KOI 35% | G2 65%, AST 45% | KOI 55%
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